When people think of football trading they usually picture the various strategies to use when the match is in play and these tend to revolve around certain key events such as a goal being scored or counting respective shots on target for the two teams. However it is possible to trade a match before it starts, in fact often well before the start. Football odds do not change so much or so rapidly as some others like horse racing and this can be an advantage in that it gives you plenty of time to find evidence to try to predict which way the odds might move.
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The odds for football matches are usually influenced before play by external factors such as where the match is going to be played, the expected weather conditions, latest news leaks about the manager or fitness of players, and so on. Last minute news of an injury or some problem involving a key player could have a significant effect on the odds for a team win.
Because the odds movement before a match is likely to be slight there is the disadvantage of having to use sizeable stakes in order to make a reasonable profit, but your stake is never in danger because at the very worst if the odds do not move as expected then you have plenty of time to lay back a bet with a very small loss.
The odds can move if news is released about a player, or about arguments with the manager, or between players, or even as a result of the slightest rumour about discontent, players being tired, not being paid, or even worse rumours of intent to throw a match which occasionally happens.
Some serious bettors and traders go to a lot of trouble to track their teams and seize on team news as soon as it is released, possibly from a television or radio interview, or from social media by someone supposedly in the know.
If the news turns out to be not true or not very significant after all, then an initial movement in the market odds can fairly speedily correct itself and odds return back to near their former level. Thus trading on this kind of basis requires you to keep your ear to the ground and react quickly when necessary, and so is not for everyone.
One strategy is to place an order in the market a few ticks from the present figure and on both sides. You can find one side gets filled and then you cancel the other. The problem with important games sometimes is often that large sums of money are bet and your stake can be stuck in a queue and take a while to fill or possibly not get filled.
This kind of trading requires patience and also a degree of nerve, since the odds might move against you and the dilemma is whether to hold or cop out. Often by holding you will benefit as the situation can reverse towards what was expected if your initial analysis was correct. Quite often a person new to trading will settle for very small gains by trading out much sooner than they need from fear that the market may reverse. Obviously this could happen but with experience you get to know the probabilities here.
It is a good idea to start with the bigger games or those to be played in the evenings since these will attract a lot of interest and a lot of money. It is money that moves the markets and market sentiment can often be measured by the weight of money to back or to lay.
As previously mentioned
There is software on offer at prematchtrading.com which claims to be able to predict the likely movement of odds in football matches so as to enable you to profit, although I have not tried this myself. They claim “Members will be able to capitalise and take advantage of misaligned prices in markets like the correct score, 1.5 to 4.5, under/overs and other markets, ...” A high successful strike rate is achievable according to the site.
Pre-match trading involves small but frequent wins which add up over time. Some people even use their bank during the day time and then move their money for in-play trading as and when necessary.
If you have more questions, contact me [email protected]
